← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 51% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.51 | fair |
| Boavista win | 20% | 24% | 5.48 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Boavista −0.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.69 | value: +3% |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Gustavo Sauer · Boavista |
| 37' | ⚽ | Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sauer · Boavista |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alexandre Penetra · FC Famalicão |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Teixeira · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sauer · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gustavo Sauer · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 122.00 |
| 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1532.73 | 1515.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.22 | 17.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.61 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 14.97 | 12.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.06 | 23.82 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |