← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 38% | 46% | 2.55 | value: +18% |
| FC Arouca win | 32% | 29% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Gil Vicente FC +0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 47% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 53% | 2.22 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | André Bukia · FC Arouca |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mateus Quaresma · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟥 | David Simão · FC Arouca |
| 55' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Arouca |
| 59' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Arouca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lucas Cunha · Gil Vicente FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bilel Aouacheria · Gil Vicente FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Giorgi Aburjania · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giorgi Aburjania · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Giorgi Aburjania · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Cunha |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 640.00 |
| 1006.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1434.12 | 1612.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.30 | 19.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.70 | 68.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 14.06 | 13.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |