← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 40% | 41% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 30% | 33% | 3.34 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Belenenses +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Portimonense +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 65% | 1.65 | value: +7% |
| Over | 41% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | João Monteiro · Belenenses |
| 9' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Allison Safira · Belenenses |
| 32' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 38' | 🟥 | Willyan Rocha · Portimonense |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pedrão · Portimonense |
| 75' | 🟨 | Yves Baraye · Belenenses |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sandro · Belenenses |
| 88' | 🟨 | Diogo Calila · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Welinton Junior · Portimonense |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 25 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 91.00 |
| 791.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1429.22 | 1482.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.28 | -18.87 |
| eye test v1 | -1.42 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 18.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 13.85 | 12.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |