← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Mar 11, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 74% | 83% | 1.33 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.14 | fair |
| Vizela win | 10% | 5% | 12.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Vizela −1.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 34% | 2.92 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟥 | Adel Taarabt · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 11' | 🟨 | Osama Rashid · Vizela |
| 17' | 🟨 | Bruno Wilson · Vizela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kiki Afonso · Vizela |
| 64' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 65' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Vizela |
| 75' | ⚽ | Henrique Araújo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kiko Bondoso · Vizela |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alejandro Grimaldo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudemir · Vizela |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 20 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 🟨 |
| Alex Méndez · Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 587.00 | 984.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1854.09 | 1482.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.70 | -26.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 57.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 4.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.28 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 26.66 |
| state index | 1.19 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |