← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Mon, Feb 28, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 58% | 65% | 1.65 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.90 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 17% | 13% | 6.13 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CD Santa Clara −1 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 53% | 1.96 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |