← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 39% | 37% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Boavista win | 30% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 44% | 2.53 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 20' | ⚽ | Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 50' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 51' | 🟨 | Luís Santos · Boavista |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Leonardo Ruiz · GD Estoril Praia |
| 60' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 66' | 🟨 | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 85' | ⚽ | Luís Santos · Boavista |
| 88' | 🟨 | Racine Coly · GD Estoril Praia |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sauer · Boavista |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 🟨 |
| Jackson Porozo · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5.00 |
| coach days | 606.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.43 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1513.15 | 1514.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.17 | 1.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | — |
| league points | 30.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 28.11 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |