← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 26, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Arouca win | 41% | 44% | 2.41 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 28% | 25% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 68% | 1.56 | value: +6% |
| Over | 38% | 32% | 2.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |