← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 60% | 59% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 4.08 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 16% | 18% | 6.14 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Famalicão −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Iker Undabarrena · CD Tondela |
| 53' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 55' | 🟨 | Charles Pickel · FC Famalicão |
| 61' | 🟨 | Manu · CD Tondela |
| 67' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 71' | ⚽ | João Teixeira · FC Famalicão |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 89' | 🟨 | Modibo Sagnan · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Dolček · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luiz Júnior · FC Famalicão |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| ⚽ |
| Daniel dos Anjos · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 87.00 | 543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1546.49 | 1437.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.00 | -12.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 23.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.78 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.54 | 26.04 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |