← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 73% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.28 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 9% | 9% | 11.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Porto +1.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 61% | 1.74 | value: +6% |
| Under | 45% | 39% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · Moreirense FC |
| 4' | 🟨 | Artur Jorge · Moreirense FC |
| 4' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Moreirense FC |
| 12' | 🟨 | Matheus Silva · Moreirense FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 40' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 64' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
| 68' | 🟨 | André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 79' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 🟥 |
| Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 84' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 85' | 🟥 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Galego · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 111.00 | 1725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1509.45 | 1944.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.66 | 6.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.80 |
| league points | 19.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 2.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.82 | 25.84 |
| state index | -0.41 | 1.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |