← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: David Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 37% | 30% | 2.70 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 34% | 43% | 3.12 | value: +33% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela +0 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Pacos Ferreira +0 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 43% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟥 | Cassiano · Vizela |
| 23' | 🟨 | Rui Pires · Pacos Ferreira |
| 24' | ⚽ | Bruno Wilson · Vizela |
| 39' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · Pacos Ferreira |
| 42' | ⚽ | Nuno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samu · Vizela |
| 53' | 🟨 | Matchoi Djaló · Pacos Ferreira |
| 63' | 🟨 | Maracás · Pacos Ferreira |
| 64' | ⚽ | Matchoi Djaló · Pacos Ferreira |
| 69' | 🟨 | Claudemir · Vizela |
| 72' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| 76' | 🟨 | Luiz Carlos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 85' | 🟨 | Samu · Vizela |
| 85' | 🟥 | Samu · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hélder Ferreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 80.00 |
| 964.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1501.31 | 1495.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.30 | 8.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |