← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 13, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 45% | 48% | 2.15 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 25% | 25% | 4.17 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Kewin · Moreirense FC |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Pepê · FC Famalicão |
| 29' | 🟨 | Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 31' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 33' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Adrián Marín · FC Famalicão |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mateus Pasinato · Moreirense FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alex Nascimento · FC Famalicão |
| 44' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | João Teixeira · FC Famalicão |
| 48' |
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 🟨 |
| Ivo Rodrigues · FC Famalicão |
| 51' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · Moreirense FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ivan Dolček · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 74.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1517.53 | 1526.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.15 | 7.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 5.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 23.03 | — |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |