← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Mon, Feb 7, 09:15 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 53% | 46% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 19% | 27% | 5.40 | value: +48% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Belenenses −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Moreirense FC −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |