← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 6, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 70% | 78% | 1.38 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 20% | 13% | 5.00 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 10% | 8% | 10.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Arouca +1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 58% | 1.81 | value: +5% |
| Under | 47% | 42% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Kouassi Eboue · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Basso · FC Arouca |
| 53' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 54' | ⚽ | Vitinha · FC Porto |
| 57' | ⚽ | Chancel Mbemba · FC Porto |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pedro Moreira · FC Arouca |
| 68' | 🟨 | André Silva · FC Arouca |
| 75' | 🟨 | Zaidu Sanusi · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antony Alves · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| Agustín Marchesín · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 585.00 | 1711.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1440.98 | 1926.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.79 | 19.11 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | 1.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| league points | 18.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 5.86 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 2.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.72 |
| state index | -0.58 | 1.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |