← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 6, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Melo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 40% | 45% | 2.41 | value: +9% |
| Vizela win | 30% | 26% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Boavista −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 9' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 26' | ⚽ | Samu · Vizela |
| 28' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Boavista |
| 35' | 🟨 | Cassiano · Vizela |
| 49' | 🟥 | Luís Santos · Boavista |
| 54' | 🟨 | Igor Julião · Vizela |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Yanis Hamache · Boavista |
| 66' | 🟨 | Richard Ofori · Vizela |
| 68' | ⚽ | Samu · Vizela |
| 70' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 80' | 🟨 | Anderson · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeriel De Santis · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Silva · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudemir · Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 67.00 | 951.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1497.29 | 1503.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.64 | 16.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 48.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 23.82 | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |