← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 5, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 39% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 29% | 27% | 3.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Pacos Ferreira −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 40% | 2.64 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Lucas Possignolo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 22' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 40' | 🟨 | Rui Pires · Pacos Ferreira |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nuno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pedrão · Portimonense |
| 60' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · Pacos Ferreira |
| 68' | 🟨 | Adewale Sapara · Portimonense |
| 84' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Pacos Ferreira |
| 85' | 🟨 | Luquinha · Portimonense |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luiz Carlos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 24 | Fouls | 23 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Welinton Junior · Portimonense |
| 90' | ⚽ | Welinton Junior · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.80 |
| coach days | 66.00 | 735.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1507.17 | 1501.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.89 | -36.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |