← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Tue, Feb 1, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 47% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.29 | value: +10% |
| Boavista win | 24% | 20% | 4.22 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Boavista −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 65% | 1.64 | value: +7% |
| Over | 41% | 35% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |