← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 30, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Melo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 80% | 86% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 8.01 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 6% | 3% | 17.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo −2 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Porto −2 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 75% | 1.51 | value: +13% |
| Under | 36% | 25% | 2.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 31' | 🟨 | André Vidigal · Maritimo |
| 43' | 🟨 | Matheus Costa · Maritimo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 48' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 51' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 79' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 24 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| João Mário · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rafik Guitane · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1704.00 | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1939.12 | 1526.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.41 | 35.53 |
| eye test v1 | 1.86 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 53.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.79 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.53 | 28.56 |
| state index | 1.97 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |