← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 30, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 44% | 56% | 2.20 | value: +23% |
| CD Tondela win | 28% | 25% | 3.61 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 19% | 3.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense −0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 47% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 53% | 2.03 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Iván Angulo · Portimonense |
| 42' | 🟨 | Rafael Barbosa · CD Tondela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Javier Avilés · CD Tondela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Eduardo Quaresma · CD Tondela |
| 47' | 🟨 | Fahd Moufi · Portimonense |
| 59' | 🟥 | Filipe Relvas · Portimonense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Willyan Rocha · Portimonense |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Portimonense |
| 68' | 🟨 | Pedro Augusto · CD Tondela |
| 80' | ⚽ | Iker Undabarrena · CD Tondela |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| ⚽ |
| Juan Manuel Boselli · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Modibo Sagnan · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Telmo Arcanjo · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 729.00 | 516.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1515.39 | 1429.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.22 | -6.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 67.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |