← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 23, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 53% | 47% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +8% |
| Portimonense win | 21% | 24% | 4.67 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Portimonense −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 59% | 1.90 | value: +12% |
| Over | 49% | 41% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 24' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 24' | 🟥 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 30' | 🟨 | Kanya Fujimoto · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedrão · Portimonense |
| 74' | ⚽ | Pedrinho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 86' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Giorgi Aburjania · Gil Vicente FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fali Candé · Portimonense |
| 86' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 🟨 |
| Ewerton · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 937.00 | 722.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1561.61 | 1522.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.57 | -8.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.40 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |