← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 23, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Maritimo win | 52% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 20% | 22% | 5.33 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Maritimo −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Belenenses −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 51% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 49% | 2.32 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 26 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |