← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Jan 21, 09:15 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 37% | 40% | 2.66 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Boavista win | 31% | 26% | 3.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Boavista +0 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Ilija Vukotić · Boavista |
| 40' | 🟨 | Yanis Hamache · Boavista |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Vitorino Antunes · Pacos Ferreira |
| 45' | 🟨 | Reggie Cannon · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Kenji Gorré · Boavista |
| 70' | 🟨 | Lucas Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jeimes · Pacos Ferreira |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mohamed Diaby · Pacos Ferreira |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jeriel De Santis · Boavista |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kenji Gorré · Boavista |
| 87' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| 🟨 |
| Maracás · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1507.65 | 1502.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.14 | 6.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.70 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 5.11 | 6.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |