← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 16, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 54% | 49% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +10% |
| CD Tondela win | 19% | 21% | 5.32 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CD Tondela −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 51% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 49% | 2.25 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |