← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 81% | 81% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 8% | 8.04 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 6% | 12% | 17.00 | value: +101% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 66% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 34% | 2.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rafael Martins · Moreirense FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Gilberto · Moreirense FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 72' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Moreirense FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 89' | 🟨 | Artur Jorge · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alejandro Grimaldo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kewin · Moreirense FC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 532.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.47 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1852.26 | 1519.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.17 | -11.56 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.72 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.07 | — |
| state index | 1.06 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |