← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 9, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 36% | 53% | 2.75 | value: +47% ⚠ |
| Draw | 32% | 22% | 3.00 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 32% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Belenenses +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 59% | 1.49 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 41% | 2.75 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Álvaro Ramalho · Belenenses |
| 6' | 🟥 | André Silva · FC Arouca |
| 11' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 18' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 18' | 🟥 | Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 37' | ⚽ | Oday Dabbagh · FC Arouca |
| 43' | 🟨 | Arsénio Nunes · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Siphephelo Sithole · Belenenses |
| 53' | 🟨 | Afonso Sousa · Belenenses |
| 57' | 🟨 | Diogo Calila · Belenenses |
| 59' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 24 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Nacional |
| 🟨 |
| Oday Dabbagh · FC Arouca |
| 65' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · Belenenses |
| 70' | 🟨 | Allison Safira · Belenenses |
| 73' | ⚽ | Nilton Varela · Belenenses |
| 77' | 🟨 | Oday Dabbagh · FC Arouca |
| 77' | 🟥 | Oday Dabbagh · FC Arouca |
| 86' | 🟨 | Yohan Tavares · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ | Abel Camará · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 8.00 | 557.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1443.98 | 1434.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.15 | -22.87 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| league points | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 10.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.30 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |