← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 9, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Portimonense win | 47% | 36% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 37% | 3.36 | value: +25% |
| Maritimo win | 24% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Maritimo −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Portimonense −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 55% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 45% | 2.37 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |