← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 8, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 73% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 9.34 | value: +45% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 8% | 12% | 39.42 | value: +364% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| GD Estoril Praia +1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 62% | 1.74 | value: +8% |
| Under | 45% | 38% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Arthur Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | André Franco · GD Estoril Praia |
| 48' | 🟨 | Arthur Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 49' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 62' | 🟨 | Rui Fonte · GD Estoril Praia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bruno Lourenço · GD Estoril Praia |
| 84' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Porto |
| 89' | ⚽ | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Franco · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 🟨 |
| Otavio · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 556.00 | 1682.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.97 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1521.10 | 1918.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.79 | 25.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 10.88 | 8.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 2.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.17 |
| state index | -0.12 | 2.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |