← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Thu, Dec 30, 09:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 53% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.82 | fair |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 22% | 18% | 4.83 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Porto −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 66% | 1.81 | value: +19% |
| Under | 46% | 34% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | André Almeida · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jan Vertonghen · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 30' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
| 34' | ⚽ | Fábio Vieira · FC Porto |
| 37' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 46' | ⚽ | Roman Yaremchuk · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 49' | 🟨 | André Almeida · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 49' | 🟥 | André Almeida · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 51' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 🟨 |
| Toni Martínez · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gilberto · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Gonçalves · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1673.00 | 516.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.42 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 4.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1907.65 | 1860.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.74 | 5.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.63 | 1.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| league points | 41.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 11.08 | 11.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.73 | 2.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 29.03 |
| state index | 2.08 | 1.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 1.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |