← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Thu, Dec 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: David Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 36% | 31% | 2.69 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 32% | 41% | 2.99 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 61% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 39% | 2.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 41' | ⚽ | Hidemasa Morita · CD Santa Clara |
| 44' | 🟨 | Cryzan · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luís Bastos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rafael Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 62' | 🟨 | Luiz Carlos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 69' | ⚽ | Denilson · Pacos Ferreira |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lucas Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 82' | ⚽ | Denilson · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mikel Villanueva · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 23 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| 🟨 |
| Rafael Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rafael Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1499.28 | 1525.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.33 | -4.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | — |
| league points | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 12.06 | 12.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |