← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Dec 17, 09:15 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 42% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 28% | 25% | 3.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 59% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 41% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Luiz Júnior · FC Famalicão |
| 21' | 🟨 | Alexandre Penetra · FC Famalicão |
| 30' | 🟨 | Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 42' | ⚽ (og) | Bernardo Vital · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 53' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lawrence Ofori · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Franco · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.12 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 🟨 |
| Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charles Pickel · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 534.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.69 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1532.48 | 1502.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.90 | -25.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| league points | 24.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 5.24 | 5.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.79 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |