← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Mon, Dec 13, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 37% | 35% | 2.63 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 33% | 37% | 3.03 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Vizela +0.25 | 45% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 54% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 46% | 2.26 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Hugues Evrard · Vizela |
| 9' | ⚽ | Samu · Vizela |
| 15' | 🟨 | André Silva · FC Arouca |
| 16' | ⚽ (og) | Abdoulaye Ba · Vizela |
| 18' | ⚽ | Guilherme Schettine · Vizela |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Guilherme Schettine · Vizela |
| 42' | 🟨 | Richard Ofori · Vizela |
| 55' | ⚽ | André Bukia · FC Arouca |
| 63' | 🟨 | Koffi Kouao · Vizela |
| 65' | 🟨 | Guilherme Schettine · Vizela |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Vizela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 🟨 |
| Tiago Araújo · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 530.00 | 896.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1460.67 | 1486.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.92 | -7.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 8.20 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.58 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |