← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Dec 5, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 48% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 24% | 27% | 4.32 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 53% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 47% | 2.38 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Mateus Quaresma · FC Arouca |
| 21' | ⚽ | Cryzan · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | ⚽ | Arsénio Nunes · FC Arouca |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cryzan · CD Santa Clara |
| 46' | 🟨 | Marco Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nenê · CD Santa Clara |
| 58' | 🟨 | Rafael Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | 🟨 | Eugeni Valderrama · FC Arouca |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kennedy Boateng · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arsénio Nunes · FC Arouca |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 🟨 |
| Gastón Campi · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 4.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1535.18 | 1489.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.20 | 26.42 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.83 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |