← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 4, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 42% | 45% | 2.31 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 27% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Boavista −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 60% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 40% | 2.57 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 19' | 🟨 | Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 23' | 🟨 | Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
| 23' | 🟨 | Matheus Costa · Maritimo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ilija Vukotić · Boavista |
| 48' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Diogo Mendes · Maritimo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 70' | 🟥 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 76' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 23 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| 🟨 |
| Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 76' | 🟥 | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ricardinho · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Henrique · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1498.96 | 1460.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.51 | -13.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 1.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| league points | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.82 | — |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |