← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Nov 26, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 38% | 43% | 2.66 | value: +15% |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 32% | 26% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Gil Vicente FC +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 59% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 41% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Vítor Carvalho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Moreirense FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · Moreirense FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Žiga Frelih · Gil Vicente FC |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Yan Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Samuel Lino · Gil Vicente FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Fran Navarro · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Cunha · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 🟨 |
| Bilel Aouacheria · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 25.00 | 879.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1533.42 | 1514.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.10 | -1.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 19.99 | 21.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |