← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 6, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 52% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 19% | 21% | 5.34 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Belenenses −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 40% | 2.73 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Afonso Sousa · Belenenses |
| 10' | ⚽ | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
| 12' | 🟨 | Chima Akas · Belenenses |
| 25' | 🟨 | Giannelli Imbula · Portimonense |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pedrão · Portimonense |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 73' | 🟨 | Aylton Boa Morte · Portimonense |
| 78' | 🟨 | Samuel · Portimonense |
| 79' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 83' | ⚽ | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 🟨 |
| César Sousa · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 644.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1502.45 | 1486.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.70 | -3.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |