← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Nov 5, 09:15 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 49% | 49% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Boavista win | 23% | 23% | 4.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Famalicão +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Pedro Brazão · FC Famalicão |
| 16' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 37' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 40' | 🟨 | Yanis Hamache · Boavista |
| 44' | ⚽ | Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nathan · Boavista |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alexandre Penetra · FC Famalicão |
| 48' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 55' | 🟨 | Iván Jaime · FC Famalicão |
| 58' | 🟥 | Reggie Cannon · Boavista |
| 63' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| 🟨 |
| Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 72' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Famalicão |
| 74' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pablo Felipe · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 461.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1529.40 | 1525.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.41 | -8.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.22 | 5.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.23 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 23.82 | 23.79 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |