← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 30, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 81% | 81% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.88 | value: +6% |
| Boavista win | 5% | 5% | 18.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista −2 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Porto −2 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 71% | 1.57 | value: +12% |
| Under | 39% | 29% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Porto |
| 26' | 🟨 | Petar Musa · Boavista |
| 30' | ⚽ | Yanis Hamache · Boavista |
| 38' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sauer · Boavista |
| 41' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 47' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kenji Gorré · Boavista |
| 60' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 61' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Danny Namaso · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1612.00 | 455.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1883.91 | 1532.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.68 | -6.21 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 4.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.82 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.04 | 23.82 |
| state index | 1.76 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |