← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Oct 29, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 44% | 47% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.58 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 45% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 55% | 1.95 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Renat Dadaşov · CD Tondela |
| 26' | 🟨 | Modibo Sagnan · CD Tondela |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | João Basso · FC Arouca |
| 35' | 🟨 | Kouassi Eboue · FC Arouca |
| 50' | 🟨 | Rafael Barbosa · CD Tondela |
| 63' | 🟨 | Naoufel Khacef · CD Tondela |
| 68' | ⚽ | André Bukia · FC Arouca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pité · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pité · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adílio · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| Thales · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟥 | Pité · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 485.00 | 423.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1440.98 | 1458.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.48 | 12.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |