← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 23, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 36% | 37% | 2.78 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 34% | 34% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Famalicão +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 59% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 41% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Lincoln · CD Santa Clara |
| 44' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 51' | 🟥 | Cristian Tassano · CD Santa Clara |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 57' | 🟨 | Allano · CD Santa Clara |
| 84' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 86' | 🟨 | Júlio Romão · CD Santa Clara |
| 89' | 🟨 | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 89' | 🟥 | Simon Banza · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Júlio Romão · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 🟥 |
| Júlio Romão · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 22.00 | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1560.53 | 1508.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.66 | -17.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.28 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |