← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 83% | 1.25 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 6.32 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 8% | 5% | 14.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira −1.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Porto −1.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 66% | 1.69 | value: +11% |
| Under | 43% | 34% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 17' | 🟨 | Hélder Ferreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 19' | ⚽ | Nuno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 30' | 🟨 | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 32' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Pacos Ferreira |
| 40' | 🟨 | Denilson · Pacos Ferreira |
| 44' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Porto |
| 52' | ⚽ | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 80' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · Pacos Ferreira |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 🟨 |
| Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1584.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1878.74 | 1535.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.97 | 4.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.86 | 4.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.34 | — |
| state index | 1.60 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |