← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 39% | 42% | 2.51 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.13 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 30% | 30% | 3.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Vizela −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 63% | 1.73 | value: +10% |
| Over | 44% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Ivo · Vizela |
| 30' | 🟨 | Samu · Vizela |
| 40' | 🟨 | Marcos Paulo · Vizela |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lincoln · CD Santa Clara |
| 74' | ⚽ | Jean Patric · CD Santa Clara |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kiki Afonso · Vizela |
| 84' | 🟨 | Allano · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Koffi Kouao · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raphael Guzzo · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nenê · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vizela | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Vizela |
| Jean Patric · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 824.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1495.69 | 1568.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.99 | -20.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 5.79 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.09 | 27.47 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.60 |