← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 25, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 48% | 43% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +10% |
| CD Tondela win | 24% | 26% | 4.16 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Famalicão +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 45% | 1.87 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 55% | 2.02 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Pedro Augusto · CD Tondela |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 40' | ⚽ | Iván Jaime · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | 🟥 | Alexandre Penetra · FC Famalicão |
| 50' | ⚽ | Adrián Marín · FC Famalicão |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ivo Rodrigues · FC Famalicão |
| 62' | 🟨 | Modibo Sagnan · CD Tondela |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 63' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Famalicão |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dalberson · FC Famalicão |
| 78' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| ⚽ |
| Juan Manuel Boselli · CD Tondela |
| 84' | ⚽ | Renat Dadaşov · CD Tondela |
| 86' | 🟨 | Renat Dadaşov · CD Tondela |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alex Nascimento · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Trigueira · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Tavares · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 389.00 | 208.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1431.66 | 1530.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.31 | -9.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| league points | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 4.97 | 7.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.28 |
| state index | -1.22 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |