← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 38% | 40% | 2.58 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara +0 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Gil Vicente FC +0 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 36% | 2.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Rui Costa · CD Santa Clara |
| 29' | 🟨 | Rafael Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 53' | 🟨 | Bilel Aouacheria · Gil Vicente FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jean Patric · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | 🟥 | Allano · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | 🟥 | Rúben Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Talocha · Gil Vicente FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ricardinho · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Cunha · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 🟨 |
| Giorgi Aburjania · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 2858.00 | 790.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1577.85 | 1534.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.92 | 29.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 3.02 | 8.10 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 27.01 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |