← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Aug 27, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 43% | 48% | 2.28 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 26% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Maritimo −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 36% | 2.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Bruno Lourenço · GD Estoril Praia |
| 15' | 🟨 | David Bruno · GD Estoril Praia |
| 19' | 🟨 | André Vidigal · Maritimo |
| 28' | ⚽ | Miguel Crespo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 36' | 🟨 | Léo · Maritimo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 59' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nahuel Ferraresi · GD Estoril Praia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Daniel Figueira · GD Estoril Praia |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 24 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 🟨 |
| Miguel Crespo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 85' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Áfrico · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Costa · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 422.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1506.37 | 1492.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.99 | 8.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -1.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 4.09 | 5.14 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 24.74 | 26.65 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |