← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Aug 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Melo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 44% | 47% | 2.24 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.28 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Belenenses +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 56% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 44% | 2.48 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Chima Akas · Belenenses |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tomás Ribeiro · Belenenses |
| 45' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Yan Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Afonso Sousa · Belenenses |
| 67' | 🟥 | Trova Boni · Belenenses |
| 78' | 🟨 | Andrija Luković · Belenenses |
| 78' | 🟨 | Luis Felipe · Belenenses |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Moreirense FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Carraça · Belenenses |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa |
| ⚽ |
| André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 604.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1486.93 | 1546.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.76 | 1.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 6.91 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.01 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |