← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Mon, Aug 23, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 44% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 65% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 35% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 30' | ⚽ | Juan Delgado · Pacos Ferreira |
| 37' | 🟨 | Miguel Crespo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Bruno Lourenço · GD Estoril Praia |
| 58' | 🟨 | Fernando Fonseca · Pacos Ferreira |
| 67' | 🟨 | Hélder Ferreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | André Franco · GD Estoril Praia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luiz Carlos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 81' | ⚽ | Joãozinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nahuel Ferraresi · GD Estoril Praia |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 24 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 53.00 | 418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1564.50 | 1485.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.73 | 18.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.98 | 9.95 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.94 | 24.41 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |