← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Aug 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: David Silva
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 36% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +8% |
| FC Arouca win | 34% | 31% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| FC Arouca +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 39% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |