← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Fri, Aug 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: David Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 36% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +8% |
| FC Arouca win | 34% | 31% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| FC Arouca +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 39% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Bruno Rodrigues · FC Famalicão |
| 31' | 🟨 | David Tavares · FC Famalicão |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dylan Batubinsika · FC Famalicão |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pedro Moreira · FC Arouca |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | João Basso · FC Arouca |
| 77' | 🟨 | Leandro Silva · FC Arouca |
| 79' | 🟨 | André Ricardo · FC Famalicão |
| 89' | ⚽ | Leandro Silva · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Araújo · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adílio · FC Arouca |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 🟨 |
| Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 415.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.50 |
| elo | 1457.82 | 1545.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.41 | -13.21 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 5.04 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 23.60 |
| state index | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |