← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Mon, Aug 16, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 36% | 35% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 40% | 3.00 | value: +21% |
| Maritimo win | 31% | 25% | 3.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Belenenses +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Maritimo +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 63% | 1.43 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 37% | 2.97 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | André Vidigal · Maritimo |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ali Alipour · Maritimo |
| 31' | 🟨 | Vitor Costa · Maritimo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ivan Rossi · Maritimo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Chima Akas · Belenenses |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alioune Ndour · Belenenses |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ali Alipour · Maritimo |
| 69' | 🟨 | André Vidigal · Maritimo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 79' | 🟨 | Siphephelo Sithole · Belenenses |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.12 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa |
| 🟨 |
| Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Calila · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 593.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1502.38 | 1462.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.08 | -20.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 8.14 | 9.03 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |