← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Mon, Aug 16, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 37% | 33% | 2.66 | fair |
| Boavista win | 32% | 30% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 37% | 3.10 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Boavista +0.25 | 56% | 1.72 |
| Pacos Ferreira +0.25 | 44% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 62% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 38% | 2.61 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |