← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: David Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 48% | 38% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 23% | 34% | 4.26 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 39% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Costinha · CD Santa Clara |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mikel Villanueva · CD Santa Clara |
| 58' | 🟨 | Paulo Henrique · CD Santa Clara |
| 58' | 🟨 | Artur Jorge · Moreirense FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Carlos Junior · CD Santa Clara |
| 62' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 76' | 🟥 | Rodrigo Conceição · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · Moreirense FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lincoln · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 🟨 |
| Allano · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Yan Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Junior · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | ⚽ | André Luis · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 2844.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1591.62 | 1552.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.46 | 11.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.06 | 8.10 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |