← Primeira Liga 2021-22 · Sat, Aug 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 68% | 57% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.76 | value: +13% |
| Moreirense FC win | 11% | 19% | 9.00 | value: +72% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Moreirense FC +1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |